Low Inventory and Demand Expectations Resonate, SHFE Tin Maintains High Levels at Midday [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of September 22, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) showed a pattern of opening lower and moving higher, fluctuating at highs during the morning session. In the night session, the contract closed at 271,480 yuan/mt, up sharply by 3,010 yuan, a gain of 1.12%. After the morning opening, buy orders surged, quickly driving up the price, which at one point reached a high of 273,570 yuan, indicating strong underlying support and bullish market sentiment.

Macro perspective, mixed factors. The US Fed previously implemented a preventive 25-basis-point interest rate cut, but Powell's remarks were interpreted by the market as "risk management" rather than the start of an easing cycle, leading to a rebound in the US dollar, which once pressured the metals sector. However, China announced on September 21 the restart of the "national subsidy" policy, covering areas such as home appliances, automobiles, and home decoration, effectively boosting market expectations for end-use demand of base metals like aluminum and copper, with optimistic sentiment spilling over into the tin market.

On the external market, LME tin closed higher overnight, providing guidance for the SHFE opening. The three-month LME tin was quoted at $34,340/mt, up $120 from the previous trading session, a gain of 0.35%. The strength in LME tin also benefited from extremely low visible global inventory and market concerns over future supply-demand gaps.

Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract, supported by supply bottlenecks that are difficult to quickly resolve, inventory at historical lows, and incremental demand expectations from emerging sectors, maintained high fluctuations in the midday session. The afternoon session requires close attention to further market interpretation of the domestic "national subsidy" policy and downstream acceptance of high prices, with tin prices expected to hover at highs in the short term.